Sub-Seasonal Predictability of North American Monsoon Precipitation

Andreas F. Prein; Erin Towler; Ming Ge; Dagmar Llewellyn; Sarah Baker; Shana Tighi; Lucas Barrett

doi:10.1029/2021GL095602

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of North American Monsoon Precipitation

Andreas F. Prein, Erin Towler, Ming Ge, Dagmar Llewellyn, Sarah Baker, Shana Tighi, Lucas Barrett

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

15 Scopus citations

Abstract

North American Monsoon (NAM) rainfall is a vital water resource in the United States Southwest, providing 60–80% of the region's annual precipitation. However, NAM rainfall is highly variable and water managers lack skillful guidance on summer rainfall that could help inform their management decisions and operations. Here we show that NAM season (June–October) precipitation can be forecasted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's model months ahead at catchment scales. This is possible by identifying the frequency of days with synoptic-scale moisture advection into the NAM region, which greatly improves predictability over directly utilizing modeled precipitation. Other forecasting systems fail to provide useful guidance due to deficiencies in their data assimilation systems and biases in representing key synoptic features of the NAM including its teleconnections.

Original language	English
Article number	e2021GL095602
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	49
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095602
State	Published - May 16 2022

Keywords

North American Monsoon
S2S
precipitation
seasonal prediction
weather patterns

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10.1029/2021GL095602

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title = "Sub-Seasonal Predictability of North American Monsoon Precipitation",

abstract = "North American Monsoon (NAM) rainfall is a vital water resource in the United States Southwest, providing 60–80\% of the region's annual precipitation. However, NAM rainfall is highly variable and water managers lack skillful guidance on summer rainfall that could help inform their management decisions and operations. Here we show that NAM season (June–October) precipitation can be forecasted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's model months ahead at catchment scales. This is possible by identifying the frequency of days with synoptic-scale moisture advection into the NAM region, which greatly improves predictability over directly utilizing modeled precipitation. Other forecasting systems fail to provide useful guidance due to deficiencies in their data assimilation systems and biases in representing key synoptic features of the NAM including its teleconnections.",

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T1 - Sub-Seasonal Predictability of North American Monsoon Precipitation

AU - Prein, Andreas F.

AU - Towler, Erin

AU - Ge, Ming

AU - Llewellyn, Dagmar

AU - Baker, Sarah

AU - Tighi, Shana

AU - Barrett, Lucas

PY - 2022/5/16

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N2 - North American Monsoon (NAM) rainfall is a vital water resource in the United States Southwest, providing 60–80% of the region's annual precipitation. However, NAM rainfall is highly variable and water managers lack skillful guidance on summer rainfall that could help inform their management decisions and operations. Here we show that NAM season (June–October) precipitation can be forecasted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's model months ahead at catchment scales. This is possible by identifying the frequency of days with synoptic-scale moisture advection into the NAM region, which greatly improves predictability over directly utilizing modeled precipitation. Other forecasting systems fail to provide useful guidance due to deficiencies in their data assimilation systems and biases in representing key synoptic features of the NAM including its teleconnections.

AB - North American Monsoon (NAM) rainfall is a vital water resource in the United States Southwest, providing 60–80% of the region's annual precipitation. However, NAM rainfall is highly variable and water managers lack skillful guidance on summer rainfall that could help inform their management decisions and operations. Here we show that NAM season (June–October) precipitation can be forecasted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's model months ahead at catchment scales. This is possible by identifying the frequency of days with synoptic-scale moisture advection into the NAM region, which greatly improves predictability over directly utilizing modeled precipitation. Other forecasting systems fail to provide useful guidance due to deficiencies in their data assimilation systems and biases in representing key synoptic features of the NAM including its teleconnections.

KW - North American Monsoon

KW - S2S

KW - precipitation

KW - seasonal prediction

KW - weather patterns

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DO - 10.1029/2021GL095602

M3 - Article

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JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

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ER -

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of North American Monsoon Precipitation

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Keywords

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