Subseasonal forecasting

Wassila M. Thiaw; Serge Janicot; Endalkachew Bekele; Kerry H. Cook; Bernard Fontaine; Ademe Mekonnen; Ousmane Ndiaye; Pierre Honoré K. Tamo; Edward K. Vizy; George Kiladis

doi:10.1002/9781118391297.ch7

Subseasonal forecasting

Wassila M. Thiaw, Serge Janicot, Endalkachew Bekele, Kerry H. Cook, Bernard Fontaine, Ademe Mekonnen, Ousmane Ndiaye, Pierre Honoré K. Tamo, Edward K. Vizy, George Kiladis

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3 Scopus citations

Abstract

This chapter describes the data that are used primarily in subseasonal forecasting of precipitation over West Africa. They include precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), brightness temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and reanalysis, including winds and other derived fields such as velocity potential (VP). The chapter also describes the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). It presents other convectively coupled signals, including Kelvin waves, signals between 10 and 25 days, and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The chapter discusses the operational prediction tools and also describes a step-by-step guideline for operational subseasonal forecasting. One of the challenges of operational subseasonal forecasting is that it involves some degree of subjectivity; it also heavily draws on the forecaster’s experience. The chapter explains one approach, based on the MJO and numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance. The outlooks can be produced at any operational meteorological centre with access to the MJO and NWP tools.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Meteorology of Tropical West Africa
Subtitle of host publication	The Forecasters' Handbook
Publisher	wiley
Pages	255-288
Number of pages	34
ISBN (Electronic)	9781118391297
ISBN (Print)	9781118391303
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118391297.ch7
State	Published - Jan 1 2016

Keywords

Convectively coupled equatorial waves
Madden-julian oscillation
Numerical weather prediction guidance
Operational prediction tools
Operational subseasonal forecasting
Subseasonal variability
Tropical west africa
Wind anomaly composites

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10.1002/9781118391297.ch7

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title = "Subseasonal forecasting",

abstract = "This chapter describes the data that are used primarily in subseasonal forecasting of precipitation over West Africa. They include precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), brightness temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and reanalysis, including winds and other derived fields such as velocity potential (VP). The chapter also describes the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). It presents other convectively coupled signals, including Kelvin waves, signals between 10 and 25 days, and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The chapter discusses the operational prediction tools and also describes a step-by-step guideline for operational subseasonal forecasting. One of the challenges of operational subseasonal forecasting is that it involves some degree of subjectivity; it also heavily draws on the forecaster{\textquoteright}s experience. The chapter explains one approach, based on the MJO and numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance. The outlooks can be produced at any operational meteorological centre with access to the MJO and NWP tools.",

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doi = "10.1002/9781118391297.ch7",

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AU - Bekele, Endalkachew

AU - Cook, Kerry H.

AU - Fontaine, Bernard

AU - Mekonnen, Ademe

AU - Ndiaye, Ousmane

AU - Tamo, Pierre Honoré K.

AU - Vizy, Edward K.

AU - Kiladis, George

PY - 2016/1/1

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N2 - This chapter describes the data that are used primarily in subseasonal forecasting of precipitation over West Africa. They include precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), brightness temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and reanalysis, including winds and other derived fields such as velocity potential (VP). The chapter also describes the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). It presents other convectively coupled signals, including Kelvin waves, signals between 10 and 25 days, and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The chapter discusses the operational prediction tools and also describes a step-by-step guideline for operational subseasonal forecasting. One of the challenges of operational subseasonal forecasting is that it involves some degree of subjectivity; it also heavily draws on the forecaster’s experience. The chapter explains one approach, based on the MJO and numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance. The outlooks can be produced at any operational meteorological centre with access to the MJO and NWP tools.

AB - This chapter describes the data that are used primarily in subseasonal forecasting of precipitation over West Africa. They include precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), brightness temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and reanalysis, including winds and other derived fields such as velocity potential (VP). The chapter also describes the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). It presents other convectively coupled signals, including Kelvin waves, signals between 10 and 25 days, and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The chapter discusses the operational prediction tools and also describes a step-by-step guideline for operational subseasonal forecasting. One of the challenges of operational subseasonal forecasting is that it involves some degree of subjectivity; it also heavily draws on the forecaster’s experience. The chapter explains one approach, based on the MJO and numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance. The outlooks can be produced at any operational meteorological centre with access to the MJO and NWP tools.

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KW - Subseasonal variability

KW - Tropical west africa

KW - Wind anomaly composites

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BT - Meteorology of Tropical West Africa

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ER -

Subseasonal forecasting

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