TY - JOUR
T1 - The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario
AU - Li, Zhi
AU - Gao, Shang
AU - Chen, Mengye
AU - Gourley, Jonathan J.
AU - Liu, Changhai
AU - Prein, Andreas F.
AU - Hong, Yang
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Flash floods are largely driven by high rainfall rates in convective storms that are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warmer climate in the future. However, quantifying the changes in future flood flashiness is challenging due to the lack of high-resolution climate simulations. Here we use outputs from a continental convective-permitting numerical weather model at 4-km and hourly resolution and force a numerical hydrologic model at a continental scale to depict such change. As results indicate, US floods are becoming 7.9% flashier by the end of the century assuming a high-emissions scenario. The Southwest (+10.5%) has the greatest increase in flashiness among historical flash flood hot spots, and the central US (+8.6%) is emerging as a new flash flood hot spot. Additionally, future flash flood-prone frontiers are advancing northwards. This study calls on implementing climate-resilient mitigation measures for emerging flash flood hot spots.
AB - Flash floods are largely driven by high rainfall rates in convective storms that are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warmer climate in the future. However, quantifying the changes in future flood flashiness is challenging due to the lack of high-resolution climate simulations. Here we use outputs from a continental convective-permitting numerical weather model at 4-km and hourly resolution and force a numerical hydrologic model at a continental scale to depict such change. As results indicate, US floods are becoming 7.9% flashier by the end of the century assuming a high-emissions scenario. The Southwest (+10.5%) has the greatest increase in flashiness among historical flash flood hot spots, and the central US (+8.6%) is emerging as a new flash flood hot spot. Additionally, future flash flood-prone frontiers are advancing northwards. This study calls on implementing climate-resilient mitigation measures for emerging flash flood hot spots.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85130447516
U2 - 10.1038/s43247-022-00409-6
DO - 10.1038/s43247-022-00409-6
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85130447516
SN - 2662-4435
VL - 3
JO - Communications Earth and Environment
JF - Communications Earth and Environment
IS - 1
M1 - 86
ER -