The global hydrogen budget

Zutao Ouyang; Robert B. Jackson; Marielle Saunois; Josep G. Canadell; Yuanhong Zhao; Catherine Morfopoulos; Paul B. Krummel; Prabir K. Patra; Glen P. Peters; Fraser Dennison; Thomas Gasser; Alexander T. Archibald; Vivek Arora; Gabriel Baudoin; Naveen Chandra; Philippe Ciais; Steven J. Davis; Sarah Feron; Fangzhou Guo; Didier Hauglustaine; Christopher D. Jones; Matthew W. Jones; Etsushi Kato; Daniel Kennedy; Jürgen Knauer; Sebastian Lienert; Danica Lombardozzi; Joe R. Melton; Julia E.M.S. Nabel; Michael O’Sullivan; Gabrielle Pétron; Benjamin Poulter; Joeri Rogelj; David Sandoval Calle; Pete Smith; Parvadha Suntharalingam; Hanqin Tian; Chenghao Wang; Andy Wiltshire

doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1

The global hydrogen budget

Zutao Ouyang
, Robert B. Jackson
, Marielle Saunois
, Josep G. Canadell
, Yuanhong Zhao
, Catherine Morfopoulos
, Paul B. Krummel
, Prabir K. Patra
, Glen P. Peters
, Fraser Dennison
, Thomas Gasser
, Alexander T. Archibald
, Vivek Arora
, Gabriel Baudoin
, Naveen Chandra
, Philippe Ciais
, Steven J. Davis
, Sarah Feron
, Fangzhou Guo
, Didier Hauglustaine

Christopher D. Jones, Matthew W. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Michael O’Sullivan, Gabrielle Pétron, Benjamin Poulter, Joeri Rogelj, David Sandoval Calle, Pete Smith, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Hanqin Tian, Chenghao Wang, Andy Wiltshire

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Hydrogen (H₂) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system¹. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. ^{2, 3, 4–5}). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H₂ use under future hydrogen economies^3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H₂ sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H₂ sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H₂ sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H₂ production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H₂. Estimated global H₂ sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr⁻¹ and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr⁻¹, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H₂, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H₂ between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H₂ in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H₂ usage, leakage rates and CH₄ emissions that influence photochemical H₂ production.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	616-624
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature
Volume	648
Issue number	8094
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1
State	Published - Dec 18 2025
Externally published	Yes

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Ouyang, Z., Jackson, R. B., Saunois, M., Canadell, J. G., Zhao, Y., Morfopoulos, C., Krummel, P. B., Patra, P. K., Peters, G. P., Dennison, F., Gasser, T., Archibald, A. T., Arora, V., Baudoin, G., Chandra, N., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Feron, S., Guo, F., ... Wiltshire, A. (2025). The global hydrogen budget. Nature, 648(8094), 616-624. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1

@article{40fbdb349b1e4a11886504276383cba6,

title = "The global hydrogen budget",

abstract = "Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2, 3, 4–5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.",

author = "Zutao Ouyang and Jackson, \{Robert B.\} and Marielle Saunois and Canadell, \{Josep G.\} and Yuanhong Zhao and Catherine Morfopoulos and Krummel, \{Paul B.\} and Patra, \{Prabir K.\} and Peters, \{Glen P.\} and Fraser Dennison and Thomas Gasser and Archibald, \{Alexander T.\} and Vivek Arora and Gabriel Baudoin and Naveen Chandra and Philippe Ciais and Davis, \{Steven J.\} and Sarah Feron and Fangzhou Guo and Didier Hauglustaine and Jones, \{Christopher D.\} and Jones, \{Matthew W.\} and Etsushi Kato and Daniel Kennedy and J{\"u}rgen Knauer and Sebastian Lienert and Danica Lombardozzi and Melton, \{Joe R.\} and Nabel, \{Julia E.M.S.\} and Michael O{\textquoteright}Sullivan and Gabrielle P{\'e}tron and Benjamin Poulter and Joeri Rogelj and \{Sandoval Calle\}, David and Pete Smith and Parvadha Suntharalingam and Hanqin Tian and Chenghao Wang and Andy Wiltshire",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = dec,

day = "18",

doi = "10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1",

language = "English",

volume = "648",

pages = "616--624",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "8094",

}

Ouyang, Z, Jackson, RB, Saunois, M, Canadell, JG, Zhao, Y, Morfopoulos, C, Krummel, PB, Patra, PK, Peters, GP, Dennison, F, Gasser, T, Archibald, AT, Arora, V, Baudoin, G, Chandra, N, Ciais, P, Davis, SJ, Feron, S, Guo, F, Hauglustaine, D, Jones, CD, Jones, MW, Kato, E, Kennedy, D, Knauer, J, Lienert, S, Lombardozzi, D, Melton, JR, Nabel, JEMS, O’Sullivan, M, Pétron, G, Poulter, B, Rogelj, J, Sandoval Calle, D, Smith, P, Suntharalingam, P, Tian, H, Wang, C & Wiltshire, A 2025, 'The global hydrogen budget', Nature, vol. 648, no. 8094, pp. 616-624. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1

TY - JOUR

T1 - The global hydrogen budget

AU - Ouyang, Zutao

AU - Jackson, Robert B.

AU - Saunois, Marielle

AU - Canadell, Josep G.

AU - Zhao, Yuanhong

AU - Morfopoulos, Catherine

AU - Krummel, Paul B.

AU - Patra, Prabir K.

AU - Peters, Glen P.

AU - Dennison, Fraser

AU - Gasser, Thomas

AU - Archibald, Alexander T.

AU - Arora, Vivek

AU - Baudoin, Gabriel

AU - Chandra, Naveen

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Davis, Steven J.

AU - Feron, Sarah

AU - Guo, Fangzhou

AU - Hauglustaine, Didier

AU - Jones, Christopher D.

AU - Jones, Matthew W.

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Kennedy, Daniel

AU - Knauer, Jürgen

AU - Lienert, Sebastian

AU - Lombardozzi, Danica

AU - Melton, Joe R.

AU - Nabel, Julia E.M.S.

AU - O’Sullivan, Michael

AU - Pétron, Gabrielle

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Sandoval Calle, David

AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Suntharalingam, Parvadha

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Wang, Chenghao

AU - Wiltshire, Andy

PY - 2025/12/18

Y1 - 2025/12/18

N2 - Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2, 3, 4–5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.

AB - Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2, 3, 4–5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105025172226

U2 - 10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1

DO - 10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1

M3 - Article

C2 - 41407901

AN - SCOPUS:105025172226

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 648

SP - 616

EP - 624

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 8094

ER -

The global hydrogen budget

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