The operational prediction of mountain wave turbulence using a high resolution nonhydrostatic mesoscale model

The feasibility of using a high resolution numerical simulation model to forecast mountain wave turbulence (MWT) in an operational setting is investigated. The strategy is to use a multi-nested version of the anelastic Clark-Hall simulation model embedded within the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) operational model domain. The RUC forecast provides the initialization and boundary conditions for the time integration of the Clark-Hall model. The initial evaluation focuses on a commercial airliner MWT encounter near Alamosa, Colorado, which occurred on Feb. 27, 2004. Flight recorder data was available to compare with simulations for this case. Subsequent tests focus on the time period 2-9 Mar 2004 which, according to available pilot reports of turbulence, contained a good mix of turbulent (including severe) and nonturbulent days over the Rockies from New Mexico up through Wyoming (32N-42N). Resolution sensitivities, CPU requirements, and required integration cycles are being evaluated. The goal of this work is to determine whether next generation numerical weather prediction models can be used to directly forecast MWT.