The relationship between lightning activity and ice fluxes in thunderstorms

It is generally believed that a strong updraft in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms is required to produce lightning. This is the region where the noninductive charging process is thought to generate most of the storm electrification. Analytic calculations and model results predict that the total lightning frequency is roughly proportional to the product of the downward mass flux of solid precipitation (graupel) and the upward mass flux of ice crystals. Thus far this flux hypothesis has only been tested in a very limited way. Herein we use dual-polarimetric and dual-Doppler radar observations in conjunction with total lightning data collected in Northern Alabama and also Colorado/Kansas during two field campaigns. These data are utilized to investigate total lightning activity as a function of precipitation and nonprecipitation ice masses and estimates of their fluxes for different storm types in different climate regions. A total of 11 storms, including single cell, multicell, and supercell storms, was analyzed in the two climatologically different regions. Time series of both precipitation and nonprecipitation ice mass estimates above the melting level show a good relationship with total lightning activity for the 11 storms analyzed (correlation coefficients exceed 0.9 and 0.8, respectively). Furthermore, the relationships are relatively invariant between the two climate regions. The correlations between total lightning and the associated product of ice mass fluxes are even higher. These observations provide strong support for the flux hypothesis.