The relationship between tropical cyclones at genesis and their maximum attained intensity

Despite recent improvements made to tropical cyclone intensity predictions, this study investigates a different approach than those attempted thus far. Here, the overall environmental setup at genesis is evaluated to determine whether it predisposes a storm to reach its future maximum intensity. Variables retrieved from ERA-Interim are used to generate storm-centered composites at the time of genesis for Atlantic basin, main development region TCs from 1979-2015. Composites are stratified by their maximum attained intensity: tropical depressions (GTD), tropical storms (GTS), minor hurricanes (GMN), or major hurricanes (GMJ). A multiple-parameter linear regression is then used to associate the eventual attained intensity of tropical cyclone to the obtained variables at genesis. The regression has an adjusted r² of 0.39, which indicates that a statistical relationship is present. Regression coefficients, along with the spatial distribution of variables in the storm-centered composites, indicate that storms that reach higher intensities are associated at genesis with stronger, more compact, low-level vortices, better-defined outflow jets, a more compact region of high midlevel relative humidity, and higher atmospheric water vapor content.