The skill of tropical cyclone position forecasting in the Australian region

The measure of skill used is the accuracy relative to a climatological-persistence (CLIPER) scheme. Of the techniques presently available to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, only the statistical-synoptic regression scheme developed by Keenan has significant skill, measured relative to CLIPER. Significant gains in skill may be obtained simply by combining the present forecasting techniques in an optimal linear manner. In particular, when forecasts from CLIPER and the Australian region numerical weather prediction model are optimally combined, an improvement over CLIPER of 15 per cent and 17 per cent is obtained at 24 and 36 hours respectively. -from Author