TY - JOUR
T1 - The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol
T2 - phase
AU - Jones, Colin
AU - Bossert, Isaline
AU - Dennis, Donovan P.
AU - Jeffery, Hazel A.
AU - Jones, Chris D.
AU - Koenigk, Torben
AU - Loriani, Sina
AU - Sanderson, Benjamin
AU - Séférian, Roland
AU - Wyser, Klaus
AU - Yang, Shuting
AU - Abe, Manabu
AU - Bathiany, Sebastian
AU - Braconnot, Pascale
AU - Brovkin, Victor
AU - Burger, Friedrich A.
AU - Cadule, Patrica
AU - Castruccio, Frederic S.
AU - Danabasoglu, Gokhan
AU - Dittus, Andrea
AU - Donges, Jonathan F.
AU - Fröb, Friederike
AU - Frölicher, Thomas L.
AU - Georgievski, Goran
AU - Guo, Chuncheng
AU - Hu, Aixue
AU - Lawrence, Peter
AU - Lerner, Paul
AU - Licón-Saláiz, José
AU - Otto-Bliesner, Bette
AU - Romanou, Anastasia
AU - Shevliakova, Elena
AU - Silvy, Yona
AU - Swingedouw, Didier
AU - Tjiputra, Jerry
AU - Walton, Jeremy
AU - Wiltshire, Andy
AU - Winkelmann, Ricarda
AU - Wood, Richard
AU - Yokohata, Tokuta
AU - Ziehn, Tilo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2026 Colin Jones et al.
PY - 2026/7/29
Y1 - 2026/7/29
N2 - We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (CMIP7). The protocol requires ESMs to run in CO2-emission mode, with atmospheric CO2 a predicted variable. Forcing for the protocol consists solely of a constant emission of CO2, based on each model's transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) value, to give a common global mean surface warming rate of 2 °C per century. This positive emission (ramp-up) experiment is started from the pre-industrial state of a given model. When the ramp-up run first exceeds a specified level of global warming (2 and 4 °C) relative to the model's pre-industrial global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT), CO2 emissions are set to zero and the positive emission run is branched into a zero-emission run. The zero-emission runs continue for 300 years. 50 years into each zero-emission run, CO2 emissions are set to the negative of the positive emission rate and the model run until GMSAT cools below the original pre-industrial value. Additionally, when the negative emission run started from the global warming level (GWL)=4°C first drops below GWL=2°C, a zero-emission run is branched off this, completing the set of experiments. Using this protocol, we are able to control the rate of global warming, and potentially also the rate of cooling, across participating models. TIPMIP experiments will support a range of analyses, including; an assessment of abrupt/rapid Earth system change under net zero CO2 emissions at a range of global warming levels, the long-term Earth system response to net zero CO2 emissions at these warming levels, the response to net negative CO2 emissions and the efficacy of negative emissions to drive cooling, and the reversibility of Earth system change under a pathway of positive (warming), zero, and negative (cooling) CO2 emissions.
AB - We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (CMIP7). The protocol requires ESMs to run in CO2-emission mode, with atmospheric CO2 a predicted variable. Forcing for the protocol consists solely of a constant emission of CO2, based on each model's transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) value, to give a common global mean surface warming rate of 2 °C per century. This positive emission (ramp-up) experiment is started from the pre-industrial state of a given model. When the ramp-up run first exceeds a specified level of global warming (2 and 4 °C) relative to the model's pre-industrial global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT), CO2 emissions are set to zero and the positive emission run is branched into a zero-emission run. The zero-emission runs continue for 300 years. 50 years into each zero-emission run, CO2 emissions are set to the negative of the positive emission rate and the model run until GMSAT cools below the original pre-industrial value. Additionally, when the negative emission run started from the global warming level (GWL)=4°C first drops below GWL=2°C, a zero-emission run is branched off this, completing the set of experiments. Using this protocol, we are able to control the rate of global warming, and potentially also the rate of cooling, across participating models. TIPMIP experiments will support a range of analyses, including; an assessment of abrupt/rapid Earth system change under net zero CO2 emissions at a range of global warming levels, the long-term Earth system response to net zero CO2 emissions at these warming levels, the response to net negative CO2 emissions and the efficacy of negative emissions to drive cooling, and the reversibility of Earth system change under a pathway of positive (warming), zero, and negative (cooling) CO2 emissions.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105046415108
U2 - 10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
DO - 10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105046415108
SN - 1991-959X
VL - 19
SP - 6941
EP - 6966
JO - Geoscientific Model Development
JF - Geoscientific Model Development
IS - 14
ER -