@inproceedings{b1d0163f4bc04a529b08dfbb23b673fa,
title = "The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts",
abstract = "In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.",
keywords = "Analog ensemble, NSRDB, WRF-Solar, day-ahead forecast, ensemble forecast, probabilistic forecast, stochastic perturbation",
author = "Kim, \{Ju Hye\} and Jimenez, \{Pedro A.\} and Manajit Sengupta and Jaemo Yang and Jimy Dudhia and Stefano Alessandrini and Yu Xie",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 IEEE.; 48th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021 ; Conference date: 20-06-2021 Through 25-06-2021",
year = "2021",
month = jun,
day = "20",
doi = "10.1109/PVSC43889.2021.9518554",
language = "English",
series = "Conference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference",
publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",
pages = "1233--1235",
booktitle = "2021 IEEE 48th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021",
address = "United States",
}