Thermospheric nitric oxide is modulated by the ratio of atomic to molecular oxygen and thermospheric dynamics during solar minimum

The formation of nitric oxide (NO) by geomagnetic activity and EUV photoionization in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and its subsequent impact on ozone, contributes to the natural forcing of the climate system, and has been recommended to be included in chemistry-climate model experiments since CMIP6. We compare NO concentrations in the mesosphere and thermosphere simulated by five high-top chemistry-climate models - WACCM-X, EMAC, HAMMONIA, WACCM-D and KASIMA - with satellite observations during a period of low geomagnetic and solar forcing in January 2010. We find disagreements ranging from several orders of magnitude in the high-latitude winter lower thermosphere to about one order of magnitude in the low-latitude thermosphere. Possible reasons for this are explored by analyzing formation and loss reactions of NO at 12:00 UT on 9 January 2010. Two processes that interact with each other are identified as likely sources of these discrepancies, quenching of N(2D) by atomic oxygen in the mid-thermosphere, and meridional transport and mixing from the mid-thermosphere to the lower thermosphere. In the mid-thermosphere, the amount of atomic oxygen available from dissociation of molecular oxygen balances N(4S) and N(2D) via quenching of N(2D). N(4S) can then be transported or mixed into the lower thermosphere, where it efficiently destroys NO, leading to lower values of NO there. In winter, downward and poleward transport of N(4S) from the low and mid-latitude middle thermosphere into the high-latitude lower thermosphere modulates the NO lifetime. This transport is affected by gravity waves, and therefore depends on each models' gravity wave drag scheme and their resolved gravity wave spectra.