Uncertainty and Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Climate Change

Addressing uncertainty in vulnerability research in general and quantitative assessments, in particular, has broad societal implications for informing priorities in adaptation and increasing resilience. Qualitative and quantitative vulnerability analyses are frequently used to understand better past, present, and future impacts of environmental stressors on groups of people, infrastructure, and ecosystems; to inform decision- and policymakers about how to mitigate these impacts; and to guide interventions seeking to build community resilience. Increasing climate change impacts raises the importance of understanding, potentially reducing, and managing uncertainty associated with climate change vulnerability assessment. This chapter examines concepts of uncertainty about socioeconomic vulnerability to climatic hazards, discusses different types and potential sources of uncertainty in vulnerability assessments, and illustrates the challenges with two brief case studies. Progress is being made in characterizing these different types of uncertainty; understanding uncertainties involved in creating indices; exploring cascades of uncertainty in multilevel processes linking environment, society, and technology; and identifying societal processes subject to emerging trends, random events, and enduring ambiguity. Continued effort is needed to improve the characterizations of the many forms of uncertainty in socioeconomic vulnerability and then further develop strategies to address or navigate more difficult tasks of reducing uncertainties.