Understanding the Drivers, Impacts, and Predictability of Connected Floods and Droughts

A sequence of hazardous events, or the simultaneous occurrence of events over a region, can cause far greater societal impacts than those arising from individual events alone. Yet the prevalence and severity of the impacts from these connected events are not well understood. The goal of the COEXIST (Connected Extremes In Space and Time) project is to mitigate adverse societal impacts of US floods and droughts through understanding the spatiotemporal connections between extreme meteorological events and how these connections might yield more accurate predictions. The project has thus far identified strong regional and seasonal variability in connection strength among extreme precipitation events in the historical record and is working to link these connections to driving weather phenomena. This paper presents the latest results from this ongoing project. Our purpose in presenting at this multidisciplinary forum is to engage with expertise beyond meteorology and climate science, and to begin to explore the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and its resilience to connected events.