Updates to the NCAR Auto-nowcaster for the 2004 convective weather season

Thomas R. Saxen; C. Mueller; J. Wilson; R. Roberts; E. Nelson; D. Ahijevych; S. Trier

Updates to the NCAR Auto-nowcaster for the 2004 convective weather season

Thomas R. Saxen, C. Mueller, J. Wilson, R. Roberts, E. Nelson, D. Ahijevych, S. Trier

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Research output: Abstract › Paper › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

The modifications made to the Auto-nowcaster (ANC) to increase the timeliness of initiation forecasts, while still maintaining temporal continuity and minimizing the number of sporadic, obvious false alarms, are discussed. The combination of the increased usage of large-scale information with the enhanced usage of the satellite data has allowed for the boundary information to be used more aggresively in the forecast logic. The ANC forecast showed significant skill over the extrapolation only forecast with 5 to 10% improvement in CSI. It is suggested that having a human user available to interact with the real-time system by entering boundaries that are difficult for the automated algorithm to detect, can lead to beneficial results.

Original language	English
Pages	243-249
Number of pages	7
State	Published - 2004
Event	11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meterology - Hyannis, MA, United States Duration: Oct 4 2004 → Oct 8 2004

Conference

Conference	11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meterology
Country/Territory	United States
City	Hyannis, MA
Period	10/4/04 → 10/8/04

Cite this

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title = "Updates to the NCAR Auto-nowcaster for the 2004 convective weather season",

abstract = "The modifications made to the Auto-nowcaster (ANC) to increase the timeliness of initiation forecasts, while still maintaining temporal continuity and minimizing the number of sporadic, obvious false alarms, are discussed. The combination of the increased usage of large-scale information with the enhanced usage of the satellite data has allowed for the boundary information to be used more aggresively in the forecast logic. The ANC forecast showed significant skill over the extrapolation only forecast with 5 to 10\% improvement in CSI. It is suggested that having a human user available to interact with the real-time system by entering boundaries that are difficult for the automated algorithm to detect, can lead to beneficial results.",

author = "Saxen, \{Thomas R.\} and C. Mueller and J. Wilson and R. Roberts and E. Nelson and D. Ahijevych and S. Trier",

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language = "English",

pages = "243--249",

note = "11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meterology ; Conference date: 04-10-2004 Through 08-10-2004",

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TY - CONF

T1 - Updates to the NCAR Auto-nowcaster for the 2004 convective weather season

AU - Saxen, Thomas R.

AU - Mueller, C.

AU - Wilson, J.

AU - Roberts, R.

AU - Nelson, E.

AU - Ahijevych, D.

AU - Trier, S.

PY - 2004

Y1 - 2004

N2 - The modifications made to the Auto-nowcaster (ANC) to increase the timeliness of initiation forecasts, while still maintaining temporal continuity and minimizing the number of sporadic, obvious false alarms, are discussed. The combination of the increased usage of large-scale information with the enhanced usage of the satellite data has allowed for the boundary information to be used more aggresively in the forecast logic. The ANC forecast showed significant skill over the extrapolation only forecast with 5 to 10% improvement in CSI. It is suggested that having a human user available to interact with the real-time system by entering boundaries that are difficult for the automated algorithm to detect, can lead to beneficial results.

AB - The modifications made to the Auto-nowcaster (ANC) to increase the timeliness of initiation forecasts, while still maintaining temporal continuity and minimizing the number of sporadic, obvious false alarms, are discussed. The combination of the increased usage of large-scale information with the enhanced usage of the satellite data has allowed for the boundary information to be used more aggresively in the forecast logic. The ANC forecast showed significant skill over the extrapolation only forecast with 5 to 10% improvement in CSI. It is suggested that having a human user available to interact with the real-time system by entering boundaries that are difficult for the automated algorithm to detect, can lead to beneficial results.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/23944509222

M3 - Paper

AN - SCOPUS:23944509222

SP - 243

EP - 249

T2 - 11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meterology

Y2 - 4 October 2004 through 8 October 2004

ER -

Updates to the NCAR Auto-nowcaster for the 2004 convective weather season

Abstract

Conference

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