Use of a quasi-steady ablation model for design sensitivity with uncertainty propagation

Sensitivity analysis and design calculations are often best performed using low-order models. This work details work done on adding complementary pieces to a low-order, quasi-steady-state ablation model to facilitate uncertainty propagation. The quasi-steady-state ablation model is a one-dimensional, quasi-steady-state, algebraic ablation model that uses finite-rate surface chemistry and equilibrium pyrolysis-gas-production submodels to predict surface recession rate. The material response model is coupled to a film-transfer boundary layer model to enable the computation of heat and mass transfer from an ablating surface. For comparison to arc jet data, a simple shock heated gas model is coupled. A coupled model consisting of submodels for the shock heated gases, film heat and mass transfer, and material response is exercised against recession rate data for surface and in-depth ablators. Comparisons are made between the quasi-state-state ablation model and the unsteady ablation code, Chaleur, as well as to other computations for a graphite ablator in arcjet facilities. The simple models are found to compare reasonably well to both the experimental results and the other calculations. Uncertainty propagation using a moment based method is presented. The results of this study are discussed, and conclusions about the utility of the method as well as the properties of the ablation code are drawn.